Thursday, June 19, 2003

The Sale

I think we all guessed this would happen, and maybe it's better in the long term... we will make a lot more money to buy great players in the future.

Just to clarify, this is clearly not a "waste of money". They will recover the money in less than 2 years in merchandising alone. Also, Beckham will now hand over 50% of all personal endorsements to the club (they have bought 50% of his image rights). In case Beckham does not do well at the club or the club does not do well without him, they will only pay Man U 18 million pounds, the balance 7 is based on appearances and results. Barcelona had done a projection saying they could earn 10 million a year from Beckham. The Real marketing machine will earn at least 1.5 times that. 70% of all Man U merchandise in Japan is Beckham. Over 50% of all Man U merchandise in Asia is Beckham.
And as to those who say how it's terrible that this deal is terrible because commerce is being put before football, that's just silly. To do well in football you need the money to buy the best players. And for that you need to run your team in a way that makes commercial sense, where you can make money. To delink commerce from sports is an amateur concept, one that died many years ago. The clubs that delink the two only end up close to bankruptcy, like Madrid themselves 3 years ago.

The only way in which this money is a waste is if it results in us not having the cash flow to buy a central defender and a defensive midfielder this summer. If that happens, then I doubt we will win anything next year unless Pavon, Helgura and Makalele manage the entire season without injuries and unless the coach (whoever he may be) drops Hierro.

I know why we bought Beckham but I the greater priority for next season is to buy Chivu and Lucio or Mexes and move Helguera to midfield. Sometime back I had said one defensive midfielder and one central defender, but none of the good defensive midfielders (Viera, Davids, Gatusso) are available cheap so two central defenders would be a better idea with Helguera in midfield.

The team has spoken about how Beckham will may in central midfield with Makalele but I think that will be a big mistake. We lost to Juventus because of our defensive frailties, both at the back where Hierro was disastrous, and in midfield where Davids overran a midfield that was sorely missing Makalele. I am worried that playing Beckham in the middle will leave Makalele even more isolated and overworked than the last year, and instead of addressing our weaknesses accentuates them.

That is why I still hope we sell Figo... with his diminished skills, I don't see him as significantly better than Beckham on the right flank. Yes Figo is better, but not significantly... he is getting older and slower every year, he tends to give the ball away, he doesn't release the ball quickly enough, he over-dribbles and he dives too much. His moments of genius put him at a level above Beckham the difference not unbridgeable. So while Figo is still better than Beckham, I think it's better to have Beckham replace Figo on the right than to play Beckham in the middle. A midfield of Beckham-Helguera-Makalele and Zidane will control games far more effectively than a midfield of Figo-Beckham-Makalele-Zidane. Beckham prefers the middle but the reason why he has not been able to nail down a spot in the middle even for England is because he simply cannot control a game from the middle, he cannot be a "pivot" and he also then loses his greatest strength, the crosses from the right. Honestly, when it comes to playing at the middle, Beckham is only marginally better than Guti at this stage, and I'm sure enough people in Madrid would debate that as well.

Selling Figo even in a depressed market will still free up some cash and allow us to add some steel to the line-up by buying 1 or 2 world class defenders.
The plan right now seems to be to sell only Morientes at this stage along with some possible B-Team players like Tote (who I actually think is an excellent player). There are a lot of players who can be sold now... Geremi, Celades, Tote, Morientes and collectively they should raise at least 15 million pounds. Throw Figo into the mix and we will end up with enough cash to buy some superb defensive players. We will also recover the cash on Beckham and come out looking like geniuses from this.

Man U may have made a marketing mistake but in footballing terms it's probably a great move. If they replace Beckham with Ronaldinho and a world-class goalkeeper they will be serious Champions League contenders next year, a team that is strong in every part of the field except one of the wing-backs. But the terms of the payment from Madrid (over 4 years) means that they won't have a great cash flow situation and they will need to negotiate similar terms for the players they buy.

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